I know some of you likely will suffer orbital fractures to both eyes reading this. But I ran across an interesting piece today detailing why President Obama has a good shot at being reelected next year.
Granted, 2012 remains light years away in political terms. A sitting president, even a standing president, can suffer evocative highs and cavernous lows — depending on what blows up here at home or abroad.
Still, if you plumb a number of factors as of this writing, the planets seem aligned for Obama next year.
The economy’s rebounding, and that should stop despair from raining on voters.
Obama’s approval ratings are ticking up.
The Republican field could be a landmine. With no obvious frontrunner at this point, the Republican primary season may drag on and be messier than a truck-stop diner kitchen. The Tea Party could be divisive to the point that Republicans spit more bicuspids than West Virginians. While Republicans try to see who best mimics Reagan, Obama can stay above the babble, looking presidential.
The power of incumbency. In the last 56 presidential elections, 31 have involved incumbents; 21 of those candidates have won more than one term. Like the home team or the casino, the incumbent has a big advantage. Challengers just don’t pack the same punch.
The mainstream media continues to treat Obama with kid gloves.
Obama has an experienced and well-greased campaign organization. Synchronization is not something you just wing. And his reelection effort could be the first campaign to raise $1 billion. That should top-off his fuel tank.
Obama sprinkles stardust on the campaign trail. OK, he may use a teleprompter. But the guy can win over crowds with his oratory.
The 2010 midterm voters that swept Republicans into control of the House, governorships and state legislatures were older, whiter, and more conservative than those who went to the polls in 2008. Young voters, more minorities, more women and generally more liberals should be back in 2012. The Hispanic vote is growing, and Obama resonates with Hispanics. The Hispanic Institute is working hard to increase Hispanic voter participation in New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Colorado. Winning those five states could seal the deal for Obama.
And I know some of you will scream a decibel-busting puh-leeze at this, but more Americans now view Obama as a moderate. Forty percent see the president as a moderate, up 10 percentage points from a year ago. More importantly, 44 percent of independents now call Obama a moderate, up from 28 percent a year ago.
My apologies for bringing a firehouse-red alarm and a bright-lime nausea to those of you on the right.